I got to thinking about the tournament math for Toronto FC going into tonight’s cup tie in Montréal and I thought I would share those thoughts with you loyal readers. There are all kinds of permutations and possibilities, however TFC has a chance to put a real stranglehold on their defence of the Voyageurs Cup with a win this evening in Montréal.. A big win (like the Chicago home win for example on the weekend past) would make it very likely that TFC would be able to successfully defend their title.

Going into the game tonight TFC has the chance to bag three points for a total of six out of six and also eliminate Montréal. If Montreal does not win the game outright they are eliminated from contention… simple as that. A draw tonight and a win against Vancouver in two weeks will only give Montréal 5 points. All Toronto would have to do in that case would be to beat Vancouver once in the two upcoming games to finish ahead of Montréal. If god forbid Montréal wins tonight then they still need to beat Vancouver in two weeks to have a maximum total of seven points and still be in with a chance to win.

Vancouver would probably want this game tonight to end in a scoreless draw in my opinion. The draw eliminates Montréal and gives Vancouver two chances to get three points out of Toronto home and away. A Montréal win keeps two competitors in the hunt and makes sure that Vancouver have no chance to get what could be considered “easy” games ahead. If Montréal is eliminated tonight of course then the Impact have no reason to play a strong side against the Whitecaps on May 26^th, other than the chance to screw Vancouver over. The draw scenario this evening gives Vancouver hypothetically the chance to secure 7-10 points. Ten points wins it. Seven means it comes down to goal difference between Vancouver and Toronto, the same scenario as last year.

 Hypothetically, Toronto wins tonight and the math becomes very much harder for Vancouver. Assuming a TFC win this evening and if Toronto only secures a draw and a loss in their games against the Whitecaps then it comes down to goal difference once again. If Toronto manages to beat Vancouver just once, either home or away then they will be sitting on nine points and Vancouver would only have a maximum of seven points available and have no chance to take the trophy. And that includes trying to win at BMO Field, a task no one has been able to do since last season.

A substantial TFC win tonight, where the club secures victory by two or more goals against the Impact means two things for Vancouver… They either win three games on the trot to win it all or win twice and hope to squeak through on goal differential. The Whitecaps would have to come up with 5-6 goals more than their competition in order to have any chance to retake the trophy. And TFC fans can tell you, that would take a “miracle”.

The neutral will probably wish for the draw tonight to potentially set up the final game between Vancouver and Toronto at BMO Field to be a meaningful barn burning winner take all championship game. I want the game in Toronto to be the complete opposite. I want to see Nane Joseph, Ibby Ibrahim and Gabe Gala on the pitch and I want to see DeRo firmly planted on the bench.

My head is swimming with all these numbers….. Is it time to go the pub yet??